S&P Downgrades U.S. Debt Rating
82The Government's Money Hole
S&P just announced late this evening that they have downgraded the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+ with a negative outlook. NIA is absolutely shocked by this. What is shocking is just how long it took them to make this downgrade. Just like how S&P and Moody's didn't downgrade sub-prime CDOs until the mortgage-backed bonds they held were practically worthless, S&P waited for U.S. debt obligations to reach five times GDP and for the U.S. dollar to lose 84% of its purchasing power over the course of a single decade. The U.S. was a hair away from defaulting on its debt this week if the debt ceiling wasn't raised, yet it still had a AAA rating. NIA believes that a AAA rating should be reserved for countries that have budget surpluses, low levels of debt that could easily be paid off without printing money, and low levels of inflation. The U.S. had a cash budget deficit last year of $1.3 trillion, but once you include increases to unfunded liabilities, our real budget deficit was approximately $5 trillion. Even if Americans were taxed 100% of their income it wouldn't be enough to balance the budget. It is hard to imagine a fiscal situation worse than this, but the credit ratings agencies have justified giving the U.S. a AAA rating based on the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and the Federal Reserve's ability to monetize our deficits and debts by printing money. If it wasn't for our printing press and the world's willingness to accept and hoard the dollars we print in return for the real products and commodities they produce, the U.S. credit rating would be junk. S&P claims that their reason for downgrading the U.S. debt rating at this time is because, "the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge".
According to S&P, it is because our two political parties are so far apart that we weren't able to pass a bill with anything but modest spending cuts. The reality is, the Republicans and Democrats aren't far apart at all. Neither parties are serious about cutting spending and the underlying fundamentals of both their proposed bills were exactly the same. The Republicans that American tea party supporters elected to office have broken their promises to make major spending cuts and have accomplished absolutely nothing positive since entering office.
Our country just had an unbelievable opportunity to dramatically cut government spending in a last ditch effort to prevent hyperinflation. Instead, our government passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling that had no real spending cuts at all. The mainstream media tried to spin the bill into being a victory for U.S. tea party supporters due to the purported "spending cuts" that it contained. The truth is, government spending is set to rise every single year until the dollar is worthless. The $2.1 trillion in phony spending cuts are only tiny reductions to large spending increases and none of them will begin until early 2013 when we will need to once again raise the debt ceiling. Even if the government in early 2013 decides to follow through with them, rising interest payments on our national debt will mean substantially larger budget deficits than what are projected today.
Credit ratings agencies have absolutely zero credibility left and we believe that with hyperinflation coming soon, credit ratings will become a thing of the past. To capitalize on this, on May 23rd NIA suggested to you put options in the only publicly traded pure credit ratings play, Moody's (MCO). On May 23rd with MCO trading for $37.90, NIA suggested to you MCO November 2011 $35 put options at $1.98. MCO today closed at $32.88 and our MCO put option suggestion finished the day with a last trade of $5.20 for a huge gain of 163% in a little over two months. NIA is very pleased to have figured out the #1 most profitable way to capitalize on the major fundamental shift that is taking place in this industry and as far as we are aware, NIA is the only organization in the world that suggested MCO puts in recent months.
With the stock market down big in recent weeks, NIA believes that this evening's news is already mostly factored into stock prices. With the Fed Funds Rate having been left near zero for over two years, the world is flooded with excess liquidity of U.S. dollars and there is no chance of the stock market crashing like in late-2008/early-2009. In fact, the recent downward move in the stock market means the Federal Reserve is likely to soon implement additional monetary inflation measures and will leave the Fed Funds Rate near zero permanently. The GDP was already on its way to becoming negative in the second half of 2011 and if the U.S. wants to avoid a debt default later this decade, it needs the Federal Reserve to print enough money to see at least 5% annual nominal GDP growth. It's not just the Federal Government that needs GDP to grow, but most cities and states will default on their debts if GDP doesn't grow rapidly. Cities and states don't have printing presses so unless the U.S. government wants to bail them all out like the European Union is bailing out Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, it needs to create GDP growth even if that means the Federal Reserve eliminating interest payments on the $1.6 trillion in excess reserves held by banks and taxing banks who don't lend the money.
NIA prays that Americans don't make the mistake of buying U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven, as they are now the riskiest asset of all. If U.S. Treasuries rally next week, it will only be temporary and will be followed by the largest and sharpest reversal in history with a crash in Treasury prices and an explosion in yields like never seen before. Most Keynesian economists will likely forecast rising Treasury prices despite the U.S. debt crisis, because they claim the bond markets in other countries are tiny compared to ours and there simply is no other place to park safe haven money. In our opinion, there is no reason to own the fiat currency denominated bonds of any country or company. Gold and silver are the only true safe havens and it is our belief that by the end of this year, the U.S. public will begin investing into gold and silver in droves as they realize that although we avoided a debt default for now, a debt default by inflation is still on its way. The largest ever short-term rally in precious metals and mining stocks is ahead.
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at:
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Peter, you are right - we need grownups, so my recommendation is for the President to fire all of the "kids", and let the "grownups" recommend other adult associates to replace them.
tsadjatko, regarding your comment "If U.S. Treasuries rally next week, it will only be temporary and will be followed by the largest and sharpest reversal in history with a crash in Treasury prices and an explosion in yields like never seen before.", will current EE bonds (not matured) be affected?
tsadjatko, thank you, as always, for your thorough answer and expertise. I appreciate your the info you provided me on EE bonds. Regarding "grownups", I think there might be one...Maine Senator Olympia Jean Snowe (born February 21, 1947), née Bouchles, is the senior United States Senator from Maine and a member of the Republican Party.
Party does not matter to me in HER case *only*.
Marlo you are right there are a handfull of grownups on the hill that are suffering through this I'm sure, and Olimpia is one of them.
Peter
This blog sounds too self serving to me. In the end it is all about subscribing to the newsletter. Investing is never as cut and dry as presented here.
Example: on March 29, 2009 NIA wrote "We believe both the U.S. stock and housing markets are likely to fall another 30% nominally from these levels. However, priced in Gold, which is real money, they will likely fall 80% or more in the years ahead." Since then the stock market is up 60% and gold up 70%. However many of the gold mining stocks recommended by NIA are up less than the market in general (S&P 500). NIA could still be right over the long run but the last 29 months have shown them to be wrong.
Hello, tsadjatko,
Actually, this hub was quite educational for me. Knowledge about the nation's economy is not one of my strengths.
FanUSA, I did not view this Hub as self-serving at all! I am not sure what you mean by that. I feel the same way Hubber feenix does - that this Hub by Hubber tsadjatko is very educational. In fact, I am not only "following this Hub" to learn more from the comments, I also rated this UP, USEFUL, AWESOME, and INTERESTING. I am assuming that Hubber tsadjatko is very experienced in financial matters and put a lot of hard work and brainpower into this Hub. (This is coming from me, a Finance Major in college).
Even though investing "is never as cut and dry as presented here" per your comment, I think it is admirable that a Hubber took the time - almost immediately after the "S&P Downgrades U.S. Debt Rating" news was broadcasted - to write this Hub.
Just my 2 cents...
~MarloByDesign, 'Frugal Living, Saving Money, and Financial Tips' Hubber
All I was saying was, consider the source of the info. The hub concluded in urging readers to subscribe to the newsletter while previously touting some of their trading results. Beware the inexperienced investor!
FanUSA, I read your comment and am not sure what to say. I think I will wait for tsadjatko to comment as he or she is definitely more knowledgable on this subject than I am. At least I am not an experienced investor, just unlucky based on the dot com crash. Beware indeed!
Actually, I picked that particular newsletter of 2.5 years ago at random. Here is another little titbit picked at random from one of your newsletters:
"Austrian economics should be a required course in all high schools. That way, instead of students wasting hundreds of thousands of dollars for a worthless college degree, they would be more inclined to invest that money into gold and silver in order to build a real savings that can be used to start a business in the future. Today, with the power of the Internet (for free), you can teach yourself the knowledge you need to become successful in any business in any industry"
Now, isn't that unconscionable? Kids should put their money into gold & silver and get their education from the Internet??? Have you heard of the silver bubble of 1980? Silber got up to $50/oz. due to speculation, only to drop by 95% by 1989.
I have nothing against a gold & silver hedge position as I have both in my portfolio, but, one must let reason prevail.
Sorry if I sound ignorant, but how does one go about buying gold and silver? Are there mutual funds you recommend, or you just "buy gold and silver"?
Is there a ticker symbol? Thx.
If you want to get real gold that you can hold in your hand go to a coin shop and they will have many denominations and countries of gold coins which is the safest gold to buy. If you were in Asia then you could go into any local Gold dealer and get what you want like here in Thailand where i live. You just would need a safe place to store it and don't tell anybody you got it.
Peter
Got it, ty Peter.
Hi Marlo
You can also buy gold and silver instruments on our stock exchanges. You can choose from stocks in mining companies in both of these commodities and there are a great number of them. You can also buy, what is called ETF's (exchange traded funds) which trade like a stock. They are backed by the physical commodity itself. The symbol for the silver ETF is SLV and for the gold is GLD which are the most commonly traded in their category. There are also a number of mutual funds which concentrade on gold and silver holdings.
Hope this helps.
tsadjatko 22
''S&P Downgrades U.S. Debt Rating'' IT DIDN'T HAVE TO HAPPEN. CHECK THIS OUT!
The Senator Coburn Report July 21, 2011
DEFICIT WASTE IN the US GOVERNMENT see video
Black in the black, the SOLUTION
tsadjatko
''The Republicans want to keep kids from going to college and to kill medical research so the rich can get richer! That is what our President would have you believe.'' WHO ARE THE RICH HE REFERS TO?
There are two sides of Obama that one does not see or hear. In front of the camera, Obama says great things that sounds all good and terrific. What he says is not what he is actually doing. Much of what Obama says is a lot of hocus pocus and all smoke and mirrors, like now you see it and now you don't.
How can I make that statement?
You won't see or read the differences in the mainstream press or on liberal news casts. There is only one cable channel that will show past videos and other videos that show what he says that are contradictory statements.
LOL, I am loving these comments! Very educational and entertaining...Voted 'funny' as well (that vote was specifically for tsadjatko's comment, "What could he possibly know about the deficit?"
tsadjatko, good info to know - thanks. And did HubPages offer for you to delete your video, but still keep the Hub? That would have been ideal.
Okay, so your Hub is still out there...what is the name please so I can read it?
I was a little familiar with NIA, but thanks to your hub, now I’m going to pay a lot more attention to it. They are very accurate in what they are saying. Wow, I didn’t know you could trade options on Credit Ratings – that almost sounds like a no-brainer!
The comments, however, are the best part! Your discussion with the Lady in the Red Dress, I mean FanUSA, is engaging, enlightening and entertaining. I seconded the funny vote. I think you’re being a little hard on him or her though. He may really have a big heart, but just doesn’t have enough information to get a clear enough picture. For example, if he knew what that USA or UNITED STATES was really a for profit corporation (28 USC 3002 15(a)), and not a country, and the reasons for its creation in 1871, and proliferation to date, I don’t think he would go by the name “FanUSA”.
You guys shared a few words on college education, and although it’s off topic for the hub, I hope you don’t mine if I add my two cents here:
These days the purpose of college has been changed into something that most people don’t realize:
1. CONDITIONING. I’m sure you know that the American people are being dumbed down from birth to death – have been for generations, through conditioning via the mainstream media and the EDUCATION SYSTEM as well as other mainstream clubs and groups that people join. The more intelligent someone is, the more conditioning is required to keep him dumbed down and in control – enter the BS, MS and PHd’s. Don’t get me wrong, I have a college education myself and it has served me well over the years. I’m not knocking it, I’m just relating a long term trend that I’ve noticed.
2. DEBT. George Carlin did an awesome part on student loans. If the student does get a job when he graduates, he’s so far in debt that that he must do as he’s told for a very long time.
3. CONTROL. Both 1. and 2. work together to maintain control of those who have more of a tendency to aspire to make a difference in this world.
Re. the un-publishing of your other hub due to a watermarked video: Compare this to the hubber who had a watermarked picture of a young lady as her (or his) PROFILE PICTURE. It remained for months, people would comment about it in her hubs until she finally changed it.
Again, thanks for turning me back on to NIA, and I’m looking forward to reading more of your hubs.
tsadjatko
Obama wants to continue the pay roll tax deduction FOR WORKING TAXPAYERS. THE UNEMPLOYED DOSN'T GET a tax break. Also note what really is happening. The treasury is taking money from the General Fund and transferring funds to the Social Security Trust Funds to make up for the tax cuts for working citizens. Result is that WE the tax payers are indirectly paying for the tax breaks
If this is true, AMERICA BETTER WAKE UP!.












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PETER LUMETTA Level 6 Commenter 9 months ago
Good assessment and advice. I believe the Dollar is on the way out and printing more will only dilute what is out there. The children playing in Washington think they can hide from us and the problems they have caused. Time to send them to bed with no TV and let the grownups run this country again. Thanks, Peter